Economic Slowdown - A Repeat Of 1929?

November 10th, 2008 · No Comments ·

Aided by major advances in Information Technology,the GDP’s of the United States and other countries has risen dramatically during the 1990’s and into the current century. Economic and financial advances and declines are of course cyclical yet few experts or analysts in the global market place anticipated the rapid financial meltdowns we have witnessed in recent weeks and months, the steepest decline since 1929.

This unfortunate and however remarkable incident has proved the need of redefining and re-strengthening the current financial chemistry. For instance the biggest bail out package, cuts in CRR up to 150 bps have proved itself insufficient to prevent the steep fall in stock indexes across different global exchanges.

The demise of larger financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers was not totally surprising to everyone. An analysis of Lehman Brothers business model, their policies, lending strategies and basic business practices would seem to make the eventual downfall of the company inevitable. It is strange that with an abundance of danger signals that the fall of the company was not predicted much sooner or at least in time to have done something constructive about it. Instead employees and shareholders were left holding a rather empty bag.

We have to ask, how many other financial institutions face the same fate and what financial help to retool their business models. What is it that needs to be done to enable our economies to get back on track and experience a solid and sustainable growth rate once again. Even the G7 has yet to find the answer to this dilemma.

The US and China have been working together to attempt to get tings turned around with perhaps some success. However, even if these to major economic powers experience some success in achieving a recovery, the other Asian and the European countries have to be fully involved in the process.

Financial rescue packages will not necessarily help the investor in the short term except perhaps to put a brake on the losses. Assuming it will take some time for financlial institutions and other affected organizations to get their houses in order, the investor must review his or her own investment strategies in hopes of regaining a pattern of sustainable growth.

So it is really up to the political leaders of the affected countries to step up and cooperate in finding the means not only to reverse the current situation but to prevent a reoccurrence as well. Until that happens the small investor, and perhaps the large investor as well, needs to be very cautions as to where they are putting their money.

We may feel sometimes that a plunge in the stock market affects only the major stockholders, the “big boys”. It is not always apparent that a decline in the stock market means that companies issuing stock suddenly find themselves with insufficient capital to meet their goals. The results can mean decreased production, lower wages, and lost jobs. Eventually these negatives can and will affect the average citizen. As a part of any recovery package the average citizen needs to be educated as to what the big picture means to him or her.

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